This year has been incredibly lazy; I've only just started to officially put pen to paper for my year-end summary today. Perhaps it's been too long since I wrote anything, and now I find myself staring at the computer, unsure of what to write. In the past two years, I felt a strong sense of mission, hoping to find a lifelong career, but this year that feeling has faded. The only sentiment I have is the desire not to work for a living.

Before the pandemic opened up, everyone pinned their hopes on things getting better after restrictions were lifted. However, reality has proven otherwise, much like how most people express their feelings through hope, only to face harsh truths. Perhaps influenced by my surroundings, the only keyword I can think of this year is "lying flat."

**Life**

This year, I transitioned from working from home for most of last year to working while traveling, spending a lot of time outdoors. Perhaps due to the easing of pandemic restrictions, it has become much easier to go out.

In January, I visited a friend in Shaanxi and tried the local Xifeng liquor, which wasn't too bad for someone like me who doesn't usually enjoy baijiu.

In February, I traveled to Thailand, mainly because I hadn't been out in a long time and went with my brother to look for shops. Interestingly, there are no so-called intermediaries for shops in Thailand, so we had to drive around and communicate directly by phone.

In March, I accompanied a friend on a trip to Hong Kong and Macau, and then in April, I started preparing for a certification exam because I wanted to take it. Later, it turned out that I didn't have the talent for doing practice questions.

In May, I went to Shantou. Although I am from Chaoshan, it was my first time in Shantou, but the beef there was truly delicious.

In June, I went to Thailand with friends to learn diving. However, on the third day, I skipped class because I couldn't get up after two consecutive nights of drinking until midnight, and we went out to sea early in the morning. While in the water during the day, I felt like I could collapse at any moment.

In July, I started working out like crazy, and it was the only time this year my body fat dropped below 20%, with my weight going below 135 pounds. In August, I went to Changsha and Wuhan, where it was incredibly hot; I couldn't understand how people lived in 40-degree weather, sweating profusely just stepping outside.

In September and October, I drank in Shanghai and drove in Thailand. Interestingly, I made a last-minute decision to speed back from Chiang Mai to Bangkok, driving for over ten hours. These two months were spent in a semi-vegetative state due to an acute phase of a herniated disc, but after more than two months of recovery, my foot finally stopped hurting.

So, has this year been all about playing? Not exactly; it would be more accurate to say that traveling while working suited me better, as I spent most of my time working. My biggest realization this year is the hope to pause for a moment and wait patiently. I have thought of more than ten things I want to do, but I forced myself to hold back, unlike before when I would jump right in at the thought.

A significant insight this year has been a redefinition of entrepreneurship. For me, entrepreneurship feels more like a luxury consumption; I won't consider it until I've accumulated enough funds. I am someone who dislikes bothering others, unlike some natural leaders who can persuade others to work for them without any moral burden, even when they have nothing. I can't do that, so I often end up doing everything myself, but everyone's abilities are limited, and no one can master every field. Therefore, I prefer to pay others to do things for me, which is akin to buying luxury handbags; if I lose money, I consider it a consumption, and even luxury items may appreciate in value one day.

Many people lack a clear understanding of themselves and have deep misunderstandings. For example, those friends around you who say the economy is bad and they need to change jobs often find themselves repeating the same thoughts for two years. Or those who want to make money on the side often say their friends are making a lot of money doing XXX, so they want to do it too.

The underlying implication is that if that inexperienced person can make money, then I can definitely make more than them, and when they try, they conclude that they are just unlucky and that the industry has already peaked. They can make money simply because they entered early (for example: short videos, paid knowledge, etc.). Essentially, this reflects a kind of arrogance, which I also possess.

For instance, since I come from a technical background, I tend to view things subjectively, thinking that something with no technical content can be done by anyone. This is a manifestation of an unobjective understanding of my own abilities; we overlook aspects outside our cognitive level and only evaluate things narrowly based on past knowledge, ultimately concluding that XXX is just lucky.

Indeed, luck is a part of everyone's fate. We often hear that choice is greater than effort, but you will find that most people neither choose nor put in effort, yet they keep saying that your hard work is useless. While effort may not be very useful, it is still slightly better than not trying at all; the result of effort is the hope that one day luck will come.

My perspective on luck changed this year after watching an anime. I had encountered similar philosophical ideas before, but they didn't leave a deep impression. A friend recommended an anime about soccer called "Blue Lock," where the protagonist evolves from an ordinary person to the most valuable player. Although it's fictional, what I liked about the protagonist's character is that he continuously breaks his previous understanding and absorbs new knowledge, adapting like a genius. However, many of us have solidified our views too early but still like to claim we are independent thinkers who break out of our comfort zones.

There is a memorable segment in the anime regarding luck: a character accidentally gets hit on the head by a falling flower, which is actually pigeon droppings. Many people would say that guy is really unlucky. But if there are pigeons in the tree and droppings on the ground, wouldn't the probability of getting hit be lower if you don't walk under that tree? Just like parking, the probability of getting bird droppings on your car is different if you park under a tree versus in an underground garage. Thus, the protagonist in the anime analyzes and positions himself in a way that attracts the favor of the luck god, ultimately scoring a crucial goal.

Of course, the virtual world of anime is different from reality, where the odds are often against you, much like going all-in in Texas Hold'em poker; the chances of drawing the card you want are slim. On one hand, we must judge whether to wait for the favor of the luck god, and on the other hand, assess the risk-reward ratio. Before the fourth or fifth card is revealed, you have the opportunity to see two or four cards, maximizing your chances of being favored by luck. If you only have the fifth card left to reveal, your chances of winning drop significantly. Therefore, placing the right bet at the right time is crucial; luck is unpredictable, but we can find ways to maximize our gains when we win and minimize our losses when we lose.

However, my continuous losses in poker are another issue, mainly because I am easily influenced by emotions and tend to go all-in impulsively. This is an important part of self-awareness, so I have reduced the frequency of playing poker.

Many people hear others say that something is bad and then refrain from doing it, not realizing that this suppresses their individuality and prevents them from making correct decisions, leading to a significant waste of time. For example, I am easily influenced while playing poker; if everyone around me says not to be affected and to control myself, the correct decision should be to reduce the frequency of playing. If you keep trying to control yourself while on the wrong path, it won't help, just like telling someone with depression to cheer up; it's all well-meaning but ultimately harmful.

My energy only allows me to focus on one thing at a time. If at that moment, someone who values efficiency tells me that I can't do it this way and that I need to maximize efficiency by multitasking, I will find that I can't do any of those things well. Then I comfort myself by saying, "Look, I'm trying so hard, and this is all I can do; it's just that I'm not as lucky as others."

Looking back, I haven't been as active socially this year as before; I've spent more time alone, getting to know myself better and recognizing both my strengths and weaknesses. I have reduced contact with those who don't share my values and have started to find it hard to understand those who, despite not being on the same path as me, try to integrate into my social circle due to social relationships. I find that very foolish, wasting both time and energy.

Having spent a year like this, I realize that I don't enjoy living a "lying flat" lifestyle because it makes me feel stagnant and particularly anxious. This year, I've intermittently relied on medication to sleep, and insomnia has become the norm. Later, I thought that perhaps I am not suited for this kind of life; I am not destined for comfort.

In the second half of the year, an old friend returned to the country and stayed at my home for a while. We talked a lot about plans for middle age, and my biggest realization was that we can easily be limited by specific conditions when thinking about problems. For example, we often hear people say what they will do once they have money. Or when I have time, I will learn 123. In reality, this isn't that important; it's just an excuse.

However, because of this, you won't carefully consider the risk-reward ratio of certain decisions. For instance, my friend at this age decided to study computer science, which might mean two years without the income he previously earned in product management in China. But he considered his abilities and age and chose an environment where he could still earn a decent income until retirement after 35. Comparing the options, he found that this decision was executable.

I plan to move to Bangkok next year and spend some time learning English. I could give a hundred reasons for making such a decision, but essentially, I just want to try another possibility. If I can't get used to living there, I can always move back. Many friends say that this will incur a high cost, going back and forth, but without another option, the cost you might pay could be even greater.

One day, a friend asked why I don't just go to the United States to study. I wanted to say, "Sister, I wish I could, but my wallet doesn't allow it." The only thing that bothers me now is whether my cat will think I've abandoned them when they have to stay with a friend for a while.

Investment

Since switching tracks last year, I've delved deeper into the cryptocurrency space this year than last. I invested in some projects last year, but ended up losing quite a bit. It feels like you can't escape losses in the crypto world. Many core implementations of projects are developed by oneself, and even if they are done well, you can't judge the market's impact on them.

It's like many tech enthusiasts who like to develop their own projects, only to find that no one uses them. Because you've invested, you keep pouring in more, which is essentially irrational. This is also why many people lose money in investments; when prices rise, they think they can keep going up, and when they fall, they want to cut their losses quickly.

This year, due to my arrogance, I missed out on a huge profit by cutting losses before a surge. But it taught me a profound lesson: if you can't understand something, and you try to define it with past knowledge, then you should consider investing a small amount to test it out. If the conclusion is that it's just old wine in a new bottle, then you've only lost a small amount, which isn't painful. However, if it's something you've misjudged, then you won't feel as bad about missing out.

Another insight is to avoid listening to others' advice, as everyone's risk tolerance and capital size are different, leading to different decision-making. Each person's understanding of information is also unique. So when you feel uncomfortable, it indicates that your position is too heavy, and you should reduce it appropriately. If you're willing to take a heavy position, then be prepared; belief is also a crucial part. Some people's belief comes from a pursuit of a better future, while others derive it from information mastery. You need to understand what type of investor you are to make suitable investments.

For example, if you are a left-side trader, you believe in a particular asset, buy it, and hold it long-term before selling at a high price. You must endure the anxiety caused by price fluctuations and short-term market returns. If you are a right-side trader, you need to have a clear stop-loss and take-profit strategy; otherwise, you might end up holding onto profits without selling, ultimately becoming a left-side trader. These are common mistakes that beginners easily make, and I have made them all. Even now, I can't fully adhere to what I've mentioned, as humans are emotional beings, not emotionless trading machines.

After realizing I am a left-side trader, to prevent mistakes or missing opportunities, I allocated a portion of my funds as a mistake fund, using some money for right-side trading. Even if I incur losses, it won't be devastating. Even as a left-side trader, I need to implement a barbell strategy: half of my position in blue chips, which may not yield huge returns but carries less risk, and the other half in high-risk positions, which could go to zero but also offer substantial returns.

Another strategy is dollar-cost averaging. You will find that all investment teachings eventually lead to dollar-cost averaging. Why? Because it is the most efficient path for mediocre investors to potentially make money. Although the returns may not be as large as earlier strategies, many people believe they are brilliant investors, but you can't guarantee that you won't make mistakes, nor can you ensure that every prediction will be correct, as the market is full of randomness. A single mistake could wipe out all previous investments.

The advantage of dollar-cost averaging is that it removes emotional influence. Even if you only earn 10% in a year, compounded over ten years, the returns can still be quite substantial. Of course, you need to choose some of the most liquid and stable assets for dollar-cost averaging; if you dollar-cost average into junk, it will still be junk ten years later, with no change.

Having said all that, let's review the current performance of my long-term holdings. Each year, I invest a certain amount of money into the market. Since I can't suddenly pull out a large sum, I choose a few assets based on my price judgments and buy them at suitable prices each month, sometimes high, sometimes low.

As of now, my holdings from 2021 are down 75%. Considering I lost 98% last year, this is already an improvement. I looked at one asset that has lost quite a bit, and from the price I bought it at to now, it has probably dropped about 800 times. Let me cry for a moment.

The returns on my 2022 holdings are at 62%, mainly due to one asset's significant increase. If we exclude that, the overall increase shouldn't exceed 15%. In 2022, one asset lost tenfold, which was one of the bigger losses from 2021. I thought after an 80-fold drop, it should be about done, but unexpectedly, after building my position, it dropped another tenfold. Perhaps this is love.

The returns on my 2023 holdings are at 34%. Fortunately, all the assets I bought have recovered, and none are at a loss. If we include the tail-end assets, the returns should be around 200%, as those tail-end assets only took up a small portion of my investment funds but yielded far more than the others. Such black swan events make it impossible to see the current state of most of my investments, so I have separated them for individual statistics.

There are also other positions like lottery positions, speculative positions, etc., which I can't detail as thoroughly. If you ask, most are in a state of loss. Combining this with some investment-related books I've read recently, I've realized that the returns over the past two years have come from random events. In most cases, your decisions are quite mediocre; you only earn decent returns by hitting some random occurrences.

Thus, it's necessary to separate different pools of funds to mitigate the risk of losses from any single asset. The situation in 2021 was similar to my entry into the investment market in 2017 (after losing everything in 2017, I exited). Both were due to going all-in on a single asset, leading to total loss.

Of course, I've seen examples of people getting rich by going all-in on a single asset, but I still believe that investing is a long-term endeavor. If you don't have that luck, don't gamble on it. Gradually accumulating wealth is more suitable for me now, even though it requires enduring discomfort and anxiety. If you had that luck, you wouldn't have lost so much before.

I recall a saying: "Do not advise others to do good without experiencing their circumstances." Investment is the same; everyone learns and derives different conclusions from their experiences and lessons. For instance, someone who gains returns from a single asset may possess intuition or judgment skills that you can't learn. Thus, you will see many examples in the market of people who became rich, then lost everything, and then stood up again.

Therefore, experience has no right or wrong, and I don't give advice now, as everyone's understanding of investment is different.

Everyone's investment cycle is also different. Some want to make money within a month, some within a year, and some within three years. For someone hoping to make money within three years, short-term price fluctuations are not a concern, as they believe there will be returns in the long run.

However, for someone focused on the short term, they cannot accept short-term price fluctuations. I've had people come to ask me if they should buy a project at its current price, and when they end up losing money shortly after, they come back to blame me, saying they bought it because of my advice. After all, most people believe that if they make a profit, it's due to their ability, but if they incur a loss, it's someone else's fault. This is human nature.

In the past, I would think, "Why is this person like this?" Now, I realize it's because people's needs and understandings don't match. They are looking at short-term investments, while you are looking at long-term investments. For long-term investments, the current price is very cheap. But for short-term investments, the current price is a mystery. Why do I say this? Because it could skyrocket tomorrow or plummet, which is related to many market factors.

This is also why I struggle with purely consensus-based assets—projects without any underlying support, which rely more on market sentiment. However, I now allocate a small amount of funds to play around with; if I lose, it won't hurt too much, and if I win, I can treat myself to a nice meal. Why put so much effort into things I'm not good at? Because when a bull market arrives, even projects with underlying support can create huge bubbles, and learning when to exit is crucial.

2024

To be honest, I don't have high expectations for 2024. When I was younger, I always felt I could do anything and had great potential, but now I see myself as just an ordinary person, limited by my level of understanding. This is something that can't be changed; it can only be accumulated over time. Just like with investments, if you had started investing ten years ago, the experience you would have gained is something you can't acquire now.

I think starting programming at 15 seems early and impressive to most people, but I later discovered that many people started programming in middle school or even earlier after 1995. Setting aside talent and intelligence, in terms of experience, I was completely outmatched.

A simple example is that when I first started working, about 80% of the technical knowledge I used has already been outdated by the times. Therefore, younger people, to some extent, save 80% of the time because they don’t need to learn discarded knowledge. However, the knowledge they are learning now will also go through a similar cycle.

But many people haven’t thought about this issue and blindly follow the advice of the previous generation, which often doesn’t apply. This is also why some of my peers have had difficulties in blind dates; the previous generation's definition of a lifelong partner is different from yours. I believe modern people don’t necessarily think of a so-called lifelong partner, especially with the current high divorce rates.

I suddenly realized that the entire piece has a strong "dad vibe." After all, no one likes to be lectured by someone else. However, it’s quite strange to care about the audience's feelings while writing my year-end summary, just like if I were to take a dump and you came over to smell it and said it stinks; I really can’t understand that.

In 2024, I should learn English, get an education visa to stay in Thailand, and occasionally go to Chiang Mai to participate in some hackathons. Additionally, I might help out at a store occasionally. I’m quite optimistic about the global economic recovery in the next two years; a decrease in living costs could give me more leeway to lose money in the financial market without feeling constrained.

Looking back at last year's year-end summary, I found that last year I hoped to become an interesting person this year, and then I humorously received the title of "boring man" from a friend. However, I did manage to stick to my fitness routine for over three months, even though I gained the weight back later, but I still consider it a goal achieved.

As for work, I did put in some effort towards last year's goals, successfully killing a project and losing some of my own investment in the process. This year, I won’t set too many goals, after all, I’m not the type of person who can handle multiple tasks at once.

That said, I still want to make a wish, just in case it comes true.

English: To stick to learning for a year without running away.

Fitness: To persist for at least 3 months.

Investment: To continue losing money until the bull market comes.

Finally,

This is the third year I’ve started writing year-end summaries, and I can see my changes from each year’s articles, which is quite interesting. This year’s article doesn’t delve too much into specific things because I don’t want to become what’s called investment advice; it’s more of a review of my own investment behaviors.

Life is long, just like my first tattoo "Be yourself," which constantly reminds me to be myself, to act on what I think of. 2024, let’s go!