"Daily Updates = Long-termism?"

This article is Lu Canwei's 105th original piece.

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This is my 60th daily update article, and I've slightly changed my writing location.

I've been drinking a lot of coffee these days, after all, coffee products from this place account for 83% of the national output. However, today is not about coffee; rather, I have a very restrained rule that I don't touch coffee after noon, otherwise, I will definitely have insomnia at night. But I haven't been very disciplined these past few days, and I've been going to bed early and waking up late. Although I know that drinking coffee at night will lead to insomnia and make it hard to get up the next day, there's a voice that says, since I'm here...

This reminds me of a discussion we had a couple of days ago about how long-termism is actually against human nature. While I could wait until the next day to get up early and try different types of coffee, creating a positive cycle, it's just like many people who hope to wake up early on weekends; I just can't do it...

Long-termism

Recently, this term has been blown up; it seems that if we are not long-termists ourselves, we feel a bit embarrassed to greet others, after all, most people are unwilling to label themselves as "faithful supporters of three-minute enthusiasm."

So what exactly counts as long-termism? Does writing daily articles count as long-termism? Does investing in funds count as long-termism? Does consistently playing at a high level every season count as long-termism? Does daily bowel movement count as long-termism?

Some might say the first two count, but the latter ones definitely do not. In fact, none of the above counts as long-termism; they are merely persistence.

However, long-termism is not the same as persistence. If you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance of landing heads or tails. If you flip it 5 times and get heads each time, when asked to bet, would you bet on heads or tails? Intuitively, you might think that since heads has come up so many times, tails should come up next. So you place your bet on tails, and it still comes up heads. At this point, you might continue to bet on tails, feeling that since heads has appeared so many times and the sunk cost is increasing, you will become more and more committed to betting on tails. But in reality, the 50% probability has never changed.

Of course, from an external perspective, we can irresponsibly criticize someone for being so foolish, after all, there is no cost involved.

If you flip a coin 100 times, you might get heads 70 times and tails only 30 times. But if you flip it a thousand times, ten thousand times, or even infinitely, the ratio of heads to tails will get closer and closer to 50/50.

Cycles

Of course, our lifespan is limited, and we cannot flip the coin that many times. Therefore, in our decision-making, we face a cycle problem.

I have only flipped the coin 100 times, resulting in 30 heads and 70 tails. Out of 100 bets, I only guessed correctly 30 times. Although many experienced players tell me that when you reach 200, 300, 500 times, or more, your probability will stabilize, many of us get trapped in cycles and quickly stop betting to cut losses.

When I was writing daily updates, I consulted some predecessors, and they told me that after a certain number of articles, you will find your rhythm, and after another number, you will no longer lack content. But I found that even after reaching my 60th article, I still sometimes struggle to write a single word. Even though I have adopted a "speed-up life," utilizing fragmented time to listen to audiobooks at double speed and trying to read before bed, I still have no content output. At this point, most people might feel that they are not suited for this, especially since others have already achieved some milestones.

But what everyone overlooks is that others' cycles are different from your cycle. Even if you flip the coin 100 times and get 30/70, someone else might get 80/20. If you know that the final ratio will be 50/50, then you will view the situation more objectively, because the longer the downward curve lasts, the faster the upward momentum will be.

In conclusion

So let's revisit the initial question. We know that we cannot always be on an efficient upward curve; there will definitely be downward curves as well. Since we understand the state we are in, we should just maintain a calm mindset and accept it.

Having discussed long-termism, what is long-termism? I believe long-termism is about finding those things where you can predict the outcome with a high probability, turning uncertainty into certainty over the long term. Just like flipping a coin, if you know the final result is 50/50, would you still care about getting heads 100 times in a row?

Isn't writing the same?

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