"Did You Know? Instant Decision-Making Can Be Trained"

This article is Lu Canwei's 34th original piece.

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I believe many people have had experiences where they make decisions in an instant. Others may ask you how you were able to make the right choice, and you might not be able to explain it yourself.

Often, we do not know why we have such insights, as if a divine force is guiding us. Take the internet for example; many seasoned product managers can intuitively know what products users prefer without conducting any user research, with Steve Jobs being a notable example.

Typically, when we design a product, we need to conduct extensive user interviews, gather substantial data, and then perform numerous A/B tests to make judgments. But why is it that some people can glean the desired information just by taking a quick glance without having all the data?

Adaptive Subconscious

The part of the human brain responsible for making instant decisions is called the adaptive subconscious. For instance, if a car is speeding towards you, would you calculate whether it will hit you? Of course not; you would instinctively dodge it.

Scientists found that when teachers were shown a 10-second video of another teacher with the sound muted, students were later asked to rate the teaching quality. When the video was shortened to 5 seconds and then 2 seconds, the ratings from students who had taken a semester-long class with that teacher were surprisingly similar.

Thin-Slice Analysis

Thin-slice analysis is an important component of rapid cognition, indicating our subconscious ability to understand mistakes and behavioral patterns with minimal experience.

This analysis method was first discovered by psychologist John Gottman, who conducted a massive experiment where over 3,000 couples spent 15 minutes alone in front of a running camera, discussing contentious topics. By observing these recordings, he developed a coding system called "SPAFF," which consists of 20 codes, such as 1 for contempt, 2 for disdain, 7 for anger, 10 for defensiveness, 11 for complaint, 12 for sadness, 13 for silence, and 14 for vagueness, and so on.

He then assigned a SPAFF code to every second of communication during those 15 minutes, resulting in a 15-minute argument being converted into 1,800 codes, with each party contributing 900 codes. By analyzing an hour-long conversation between a couple, it was possible to predict with 95% accuracy whether they would divorce in the future.

The ability to make instant decisions has two main characteristics: one is that the decisions stem from the most subtle fragments of our experiences. Secondly, these decisions originate from the subconscious level. When you ask someone who makes instant decisions, they might say they felt a twitch in their eyelid or heard a strange buzzing sound, but they cannot explain why they knew so quickly. Thus, you may find that their previous statement and the next one may have no relation at all.

If you ask a single friend what type of guy she likes, you often find that what she initially says is completely different from the type of guy she ends up with. On a conscious level, the ideal conditions for a partner are well thought out, but in the moment of face-to-face interaction, the subconscious takes over.

Repetitive Training

Everyone enjoys watching stand-up comedy or some improvisational performances, where actors need to make complex judgments on the fly without a script. Similarly, basketball is a highly complex sport where players cannot stop to think about whether to pass or shoot when time is running out.

So, is there a way to improve instant decision-making? The answer is yes, through extensive, systematic repetitive training.

Successful decision-making relies on both rationality and intuition. If time permits, rational analysis can help lay the groundwork for rapid cognition. In a good decision-making process, it is crucial to minimize unnecessary information; excessive information can disrupt patterns and hinder decision-making, so we need to learn to filter information.

In Conclusion

The book "Blink" does not directly provide us with a systematic method but uses numerous examples to show us how to enhance instant decision-making.

Recently, I saw someone mention SOP (Standard Operating Procedure, designed to execute complex daily tasks within limited time and resources), which some call foundational thinking, others refer to as models, or frameworks.

At this point, I believe many people understand: if you want to improve a certain skill, the fastest way is to summarize an SOP, then practice it repeatedly, continuously refining the SOP until you form your own thinking framework. When it comes time to make decisions in that skill area, you will have instant answers.

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