"Is Our Future Predictable?"

This article is Lu Canwei's 126th original piece.

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I remember a few days ago there was an article that mentioned a case of a domestic aircraft, where the overall design plan of the domestic aircraft was done by ourselves, and some parts used mature international components. Does this count as original?

If a new film is created by mixing clips from different movies, does that count as original? If a system architect designs a framework and then hires several programmers to develop it, does that count as original? If an organ in your body has a problem and needs to be transplanted, does that make you original?

Let me share my viewpoint first: as long as something is the product of your thought, then it is original. Just like you are reading this article, every word here is not invented by me, but it contains my subjective viewpoint, so I believe it is original.

A Certain Future

If you could see the next 40 years of your life, what measures would you take? I guess most people would want to change, after all, we always seem to see that our competitors have better cards than we do. If we do not contemplate this known future, then I am not really me, because I am not original.

After all, I see why the neighbor Wang has such good luck, marrying a rich and beautiful woman, becoming a CEO, and reaching the peak of life. So I am unwilling to follow this script, so I sneak a peek at the lottery numbers, preparing to embrace a new life.

However, many people choose a certain life. There is a joke online that says middle-aged people can be scolded at will because they bear too much; no matter how much they are scolded, they won’t resign. This means they are desperately choosing a certain life, even if they see that they still cannot be promoted in the next ten years.

But once we make a change, our future will shift from certain to uncertain. So why do we still want to know a certain future? Some people say that because this way I know that this future is not what I want, then I can choose a future that I desire.

This behavior is like drawing lots, but the problem is that every time I draw, I cannot be sure if it is what I want, and the possibilities are infinite. In other words, I need to seek certainty within uncertainty.

So what is the use of a certain future?

An Uncertain Future

Some students might say, I know that path is not feasible, I can try another path, but once you try another path, how do you know you can reach your future?

Recently, I watched an anime called "VIVY," which tells the story of a future where AI has developed excessively, leading to a war with humans. In the future, people send an AI whose mission is to prevent tragedies back 100 years to change the past. In the past century, there are seven key events that lead to the eventual human-machine war, and the main characters aim to change these seven key events.

However, every time they resolve an event, the result accelerates the original historical process. For example, the first time they resolved an assassination of a politician, this assassination led to a proposal against AI being passed. The result of saving the politician was that although this proposal was canceled, a proposal that was supposed to be passed twenty years later was advanced.

In other words, the result of change may be worse than the original history, so why do we still hope to foresee the future?

If a prophet says you will be hit by a car when you go out today, and you say you won’t go out today, look, I’m fine and not hit by a car, then this prophet is just a fraud. So is the future certain or uncertain?

In Conclusion

Even a certain life can experience black swan events. For example, if a company goes bankrupt, even a stable company like Oracle will still have to leave.

Since everything is uncertain, why not enjoy the scenery along the way?

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